Electoral College Map: Kamala Harris Leads with 273 Votes, But Volatile Race Hinges on Key States and World Events

My latest Electoral College Map has Kamala Harris with 273 electoral votes. The race is still volatile in that world events such as what’s happening in the Middle East can still affect the outcome. I’m calling calling MI for Harris, but could Muslim American voters give enough votes to third party candidate Jill Stein, it’s possible and that would throw the state to Trump. With under 50 days left I feel Trump has hit his ceiling of 45-47%. His strategy is clearly to keep throwing red meat to the base and make sure they turn out. My gut, not completely borne out by polling, tells me the post debate momentum is going towards Harris. Now, I’ve been saying for months that if the Dems lose PA on election night it is over and Trump is President. Trump must win GA, Harris must win PA. I viewed Harris not picking PA governor Josh Shapiro as a strategic mistake. 

However a new path to victory has opened up since Biden stepped aside and Harris became the nominee. All though difficult, a Democratic victory for President is possible even without PA and that is what my latest Electoral Map shows. Harris must win WI and MI where the polls are still close. I believe in the end that part of the Blue Wall holds. If she loses PA, and it should be troubling to Democrats that it remains so close, remember Trump traditionally under performs in polling, she can still win if she takes North Carolina. Long time listeners know that at this point it is something of an inside joke that I’ve picked the Democrats to flip North Carolina for the past three elections and it hasn’t happened, but here I go again. Harris wins NC. She loses GA. Trump wins in AZ on the immigration issue. Harris takes NV and even without PA she is the next President of the United States.

Check out my past months and see how they’ve changed over the months and send us your prediction.